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“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”
For now, the growth provides room for multiple market makers. Marantelli expects margins to “stay good during the growth period” before contracting as competition intensifies. The more complex RFQ and parlay markets may offer the best protection against that compression.
The result is an emerging ecosystem that looks less like millions of customers casually trading predictions with one another and more like an outsourced sportsbook trading room. Exchanges own the platform and recruit the customers; specialist firms price the risk and provide the money needed to make those markets function.
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The old adage “Everything is Bigger in Texas” does not refer solely to the state’s massive geographic size, which, at 268,820 square miles, ranks as the second-largest state in the US behind Alaska.
Instead, the phrase embodies the ethos of the Lone Star State, where Texans demonstrate a sense of pride and identity that exemplifies the state’s outsized persona. As event contracts proliferate, the adage could be applied to prediction markets, where volume ranks among the highest in the nation. Last Sunday, for instance, trading activity for an NFL matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants topped $208 million across US markets, figures from Aldrin Research show. At Kalshi, volume for the NFC East showdown on Sunday Night Football eclipsed that of any NFL regular-season game last year.
The volume is not only seen across NFL markets, but also on those in college football, which is practically a religion in Texas. When Ohio State faced Texas in a Top 5 matchup on 12 September, volume surpassed 50.7 million contracts traded, according to Odds Shopper, a prediction market tracking site. The robust activity set the stage for an intense legislative hearing three days later in the Texas Senate.
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With ice hockey and UFC-themed initiatives driving engagement in North America and a 45% lifetime value increase seen with the launch of MEGA Shoot, a player-versus-player simulation penalty shootout game initiative which launched during the World Cup, it is an exciting time for the Malta-based platform provider.
Barrett also describes how MEGA can “make a player feel connected within the software ecosystem and the brands” Soft2Bet operate with.
Play the video above to watch the full video interview and hear more insights from Harrison Barrett.
