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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
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Bill Beatty, our Editor-in-Chief, was my guiding light. I learned to think of journalism, the gambling industry, and even life, in whole new ways thanks to him, and I’ll always count on him as one of my mentors.
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The charter also made a series of other recommendations. It suggested that companies should designate a senior member of staff responsible for governance of the technology. It additionally recommended an AI oversight or ethics committee.
The framework also urged companies to implement rollback mechanisms and “kill-switch” controls for higher-impact systems.
For AI-powered customer support and chat, operators are encouraged to set clear parameters for when conversations should be moved to a human member of staff. These include repeated low-confidence responses, unresolved queries, indications of distress, or a customer simply asking to speak to a human.
